Saturday, October 1, 2011

Twinspire Profitline Numbers and Finding Value

It’s a Monday afternoon and I’m in my office.  Since I am meeting with a client for dinner tonight I’m inclined to kick back a little and relax this afternoon.  The best way for me to relax is to play a few horse races. 

TwinspiresTV Control Panel
The best way for me to play a few races today is through my online Twinspires account.  Twinspires is a free service that turns your PC into a personnel OTB center.  TwinSpiresTV lets you take control of the races you want to watch - when you want to watch them. The sleek and modern video player allows you to watch and wager on up to five tracks at once with the highest quality video streaming of any online wagering site.  If you do not have an online wagering account I recommend you open for free by clicking here.  Twinspires is offering a $100 bonus once you deposit funds into your new account.

Since it is a Monday afternoon my choices of tracks are somewhat limited.  I pull down the Twinspires schedule menu and discover that PARX (Philadelphia Park) is running with a 12:30 post.  Perfect!

Twinspires offers free handicapping tools powered by  I could download the past performances for free but because my focus will be limited I prefer to use some of the easy online tools.  My tool of choice this afternoon is’s Profitline Odds. 

Profitline odds represent each horse's estimated probability of winning based on a rigorous computer study encompassing thousands of races. Profitline odds incorporate numerous handicapping factors (speed, class, pace, form, weight, distance, surface, trainer, jockey, pedigree, recency, etc.). Profitline odds are provided for all North American thoroughbred races (not available for harness and foreign races). There are countless ways to use Profitline to help you make winning bets.  For example, the horse with the lowest Profitline odds is deemed to be the most likely winner according to Profitline.

Another approach is to look for Profitline "overlays" (noted in RED). Whenever the current odds of a horse is greater than (or equal to) the Profitline odds, the Profitline odds are displayed in RED. Profitline deems these "overlays" because the current odds are greater than (or equal to) to the horse's estimated fair chances of winning.  This will be my focus this afternoon

Below is the Race 1 Profitline program grid sorted by Profitline odds descending.  This brings the horse with the best chance of winning, according to Profitline, to the top.  I try to use the tool 3 to 4 minutes before post when I make my decision on who to bet.  The top horse, #3 World Record's Profitline odds are 7 to 2.  Since the current odds are in red the current odds are an overlay to to Profitline odds. The #1 Flagged is 2x the Profitline odds.  (current = 9 to 1, PL = 9 to 2).  Betting #1 Flagged represents a very good value bet.
Race #1 Click to Enlarge
Check out the result!!  Flagged comes on in the stretch and wins paying $18.60.  The top pick, # 3 World Record never really showed much in the race. I'm not a real fan on betting 2 horses to win in the same race but even betting 2 here returned a nice profit.   On to Race #2.
Race # 2 Click to Enlarge
In the 2nd race #5 Gentleman Jim did nothing.......on to race #3.

Race #3 Click to Enlarge
#4 Here Comes The Storm at 7 to 1 just misses and finishes 2ed.  He paid $5.50 to place.
Race #4 Click to Enlarge
Race #4, # 5 Roses and Dreams finished out of the money.
Race #5 Click to Enlarge
In Race #5 2 horses are overlays.  #3 Middle Bank and #1 MoneyMoneyMoney.  Of the 2, Middle Bank finished second paying $4.20 to place.
Race #6 Click to Enlarge
In Race #6 once again we have 2 horses with current odds higher than the Profitline odds.  #3 Suzie Sunshine won the race paying $19.80 to win and $5.80 to place.  As before, if you play them both horses to win you have a nice return of $19.80 on a $4.00 bet.
Race #7 Click to Enlarge
Race #7 has only one overlay horse #7 Cantona who wins the race paying $10.60 to win and $4.80 to place.  Note here I lost track of time and my Profitline Numbers above are with 0 minutes to post.  I recommend you make your bets with 3 or 4 minutes before post to avoid getting shut out.  The overlays  will be different at post but was not in this case.
Race #8 Click to Enlarge
In Race #8 with 5 minutes to post we have 2 overlay plays, #2 Thats The Question (20 to 1), and #7 Time For A Winner (19 to 1).  I always look at these situations like playing the lottery.  In the end #7 Time For A Winner was the winner paying $55.50 to win and $25.40 to place.  I'm not suggesting this is typical but a win is a win!!
Race #9 Click to Enlarge
Race #9 gives us 3 overlay runners.  #2 Pale Starlight wins the race paying $9.60 to win and $5,20 to place.  On to the nightcap.
Race #10 Click to Enlarge
In the last race the top Profitline choice, #5 Mr Haywood,  current odds was 2 to 1 compared to the Profitline odds of 7 to 5.  Mr Haywood won paying $5.20 to win and $3.00 to place.

Betting Summary

The table on the right represents details the afternoon's profit assuming you bet every Profitline overlay.  I assume no tie-breaking.  In the 10 races at PARX that afternoon there were 16 betting opportunities.  Of those 16 opportunities 6 were winners (37% win rate) producing a profit of $87.40.  The largest winner was in race #8 when #7 Time For A Winner won paying $55.60.  The smallest winner was in the 10th race where #5 Mr Haywood paid $5.20.

Betting the same horses to place produced of profit of $30.70 cashing 8 wagers out of 16 opportunities (50%).

So for the afternoon I had a little bit of fun and made enough money to pay for my clients dinner.  Not a bad deal!

The problem with this system is that there is no way of back testing as Profitline is a dynamic tool.  It is not a system you can take to the track as you need an internet connection.  Betting in this fashion will produce value bets.  I think Profitline is an excellent tool for horse racing tournaments.

Site you might find interesting:

Its time for fall "Pick the Ponies" horse handicapping tournament at the Las Vegas Hilton. Pick the Ponies XLIV is held the same week as the Breeders Cup..............

Horse Racing Systems Explained

As a horse racing handicapper and fan for over the past forty years I think I have read all there is to read about horse racing.  Years ago a trip to the track with my buddies was more about the "art" of handicapping rather than the "science".  Horse racing information was simply not that easy to come by.  Information about workouts, past performances, and trainer trends were not as readily available as they are today.  We believed we had a competitive edge simply because we took better notes and kept better records than everyone else at the race track.  That edge does not exist today as the racing form, available to anyone, is full of the same valuable horse racing information that used to take us hours to collect and analyse.

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My Zimbio
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1 comment:

  1. Interesting blog page you have. When I have a little more time I will read it in its entirety.